Mixed Messages on Flu Future

WHO recently reported there are over 11,000 cases of Swine Flu with 85 deaths spread over 41 counties. Mainstream media continues to report, albeit with less vigor, the spread of flu in NYC and an increasing number of school closures. The CDC continues to issue preemptive warnings about the possibility of flu strain mutation (a.k.a. antigenic drift). Indeed, many believe that this version of the Swine Flu may have a vengeance comeback in in the Fall of '09.

Yet, we as a culture have already forgotten the impact this flu event (or, non-event, if you prefer) had on the Planet Earth. There are mixed messages from all sorts of "experts" and media outlets. I've recently read that this strain of H1N1 lacks the bacterial pneumonia super-infection that marked the 1918 N1N1. Further, as this clinical picture continues to come into focus, we see a more seasonal flu-like mosaic; those who get the flu recover with little or no treatment, some require antiviral medication, and fewer still needing hospitalization. With the death toll at 85/11,000+ cases, the case fatality rate is running about 0.6%...far less than many thought it would be back at the end of April 2009. Although there is some debate, each flu fatality seems to be connected to "underlying medical problems."

In the 1976 Swine Flu epidemic, one person died of the flu and another 25 died of the vaccine. The point is that we still do not know why this flu emerged with fury in Mexico. And despite the travel-borne spread of the illness, it seems to lack the ability to rapidly and sustainably spread from person to person. Will this be the exclamation mark on the 2008-2009 flu season or is Swine Flu '09 the next major flu event waiting for '09-'10?

In any event we can not be lulled into false security thinking this flu event is over. Too many people are down-playing the roll of pandemic planning and accusing WHO, CDC, and local health departments of overreacting. How short sighted. It would also be a mistake to become so focused on flu that we forget the other threats and conditions we face. Recent media attention to domestic terrorism and North Korea nuclear weapons top the list.

The absolute worst thing we can do is forget about the situation...until we wake up in a different world one morning and find we've not learned anything...or prepared.