CDC: 40% will get swine flu

The CDC stays that up to 40 percent of Americans could get swine flu this year and next. They've made some harsh predictions in the past, but this one has my attention. The statements were published by the AP, you can read it here.

If the CDC is even close on the numbers, it will mean that roughly twice the number of those who catch flu in a normal season will come down with H1N1. Although the cases have caused mostly mild symptoms and most have recovered without hospitalization, there will still be a huge impact with this many sick people. The virus has killed about 300 Americans and experts believe it has sickened more than 1 million, comparable to a seasonal flu with the weird ability to keep spreading in the summer. H1N1 seems to keep plugging along at a time when we shouldn't be seeing flu...I'm not sure what, if anything, that means, but it is an interesting note. Its like getting snow in Rochester in July...might not mean anything (other than its cold) but makes you think.

Many think flu cases will take off to new levels in the fall, when schools open and become germ factories. Some have called for schools to be delayed or not open. Social distancing (the new term for quarantine) has some advantages but will not work if schools are the only venue closed. Delaying or closing schools alone simply shifts the venue to day cares, sitters, rec centers, Malls...

Besides Getting flu shots, we should be getting ready for measures such as avoiding crowded places...before you get sick, along with hand hygiene and respiratory etiquette. Stay home if you're sick...employers are going to have to get used to that.

I also think EMS and health systems are in for a rough ride this year. Dare I suggest we start planning to take people to clinics rather than hospitals and prepare to do some level of home care?

Full story here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090724/ap_on_he_me/us_med_swine_flu